Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and
effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan |
| |
Authors: | Yoko HAYAMA Takehisa YAMAMOTO Sota KOBAYASHI Norihiko MUROGA Toshiyuki TSUTSUI |
| |
Institution: | 1)Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3–1–5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–0856, Japan |
| |
Abstract: | The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species,
influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of
livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this
simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan
as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle
production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy,
only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area,
whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were
successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the
CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms,
raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14
after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied
a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination
and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics
within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr
culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely
populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in
planning FMD control strategies. |
| |
Keywords: | animal species control measure foot-and-mouth disease livestock density simulation model |
|
|