农户土地利用决策模型构建及影响因素分析——以陕西省米脂县高西沟村为例

环境或农业政策与农户行为之间的相互作用研究已经成为探讨农业生态系统可持续性的重要方法,通过构建决策模型(目标—方案—风险—决策模型,GPRD)对农户土地利用决策过程及其变化进行了探讨,并借助分层线性模型(HLM)软件,分析了研究区农户决策行为的影响因素。分析结果表明:(1)研究区兼业现象普遍,农业比较利益较低,作物种植以果树、土豆、玉米面积最大;(2)农户家庭特征及其地块与道路距离对研究区农户经济作物种植决策有重要的影响,粮食作物的种植决策主要受到地块自然条件的影响。

Model Construction of Land Use Decision-making by Farm Households and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors-A Case Study of Gaoxigou Village, Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province

Analyzing the interactions between environmental or agricultural policies and farmers' behaviors has been widely considered to be very important for the sustainability of agro-ecosystems. Based on the economics theory, the goal-project-risk-decision(GPRD) model was constructed, and the process and change of the land use decision-making by farm household were revealed. With the help of hierarchical linear model(HLM) software, the farm households' landuse behaviors were analyzed. The conclusion is as follows: (1) The off-farm was widespread due to the lower comparative advantage of agriculture, and the majority crops were potato, corn and fruit tree. (2) The decision-making for cash crops was affected by the characters of farm household and the distance between parcels and roads, and for cereal crops, by the natural conditions.