黄河流域耕地生态安全动态演进及时空异质性

耕地生态安全是粮食安全的基础。基于国家公顷生态足迹模型测算2000—2021年黄河流域耕地生态安全,采用标准差椭圆和时空地理加权回归模型,揭示黄河流域耕地生态安全的时空演进特征,识别其驱动因素的时空异质性。结果表明：黄河流域耕地生态安全总体呈现"N"型变动趋势,仍具有较大提升空间。从空间格局来看,黄河流域耕地生态安全呈现"东北—西南"方向收缩、"西北—东南"方向扩散态势,耕地生态安全差距变大。城镇化、财政支农及降水有利于提高黄河流域的耕地生态安全,农村居民收入及化肥施用强度则具有抑制作用,各影响因素存在明显的时空分异性。

Dynamic Evolution and Spatio-temporal Heterogeneity of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in the Yellow River Basin

Cultivated land ecological security is the foundation of food security. Based on the national hectare ecological footprint model, the cultivated land ecological security in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2021 is analyzed. Besides, the study uses the standard deviation ellipse and geographically and temporally weighted regression model to reveal the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of cultivated land ecological security in the Yellow River Basin and identify the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of its driving factors. The results show that the cultivated land ecological security in the area shows a trend of "N" type change, and still has considerable room for improvement. From the perspective of spatial pattern, the cultivated land ecological security in the area shows a trend of northeast-to-southwest contraction and northeast-to-southeast diffusion, and the gap is gradually widening. Urbanization, financial support for agriculture and precipitation are conducive to improving the ecological security of cultivated land in the Yellow River Basin, while rural residents'' income and fertilizer application intensity have inhibitory effects. There is obvious spatio-temporal differentiation in various influencing factors.