中国农村家庭贫困脆弱性测度、动态变化与影响因素研究——基于CFPS数据库的实证分析

基于CFPS数据库实证探讨农村家庭贫困脆弱性水平和关键影响因素。结论如下：中国农村家庭贫困脆弱性总体先下降、后反弹上升,且不同地域分布的农户和不同家庭特征的农户家庭贫困脆弱性存在显著差异。同时,农村贫困脆弱家庭中长期脆弱家庭和动态脆弱家庭也并存;农户家庭特征和外部发展条件显著影响农村家庭贫困脆弱性,户主年长、家有患病人员、家有较多老人与未成年子女以及经历自然灾害等情况加剧家庭贫困脆弱性。户主高学历、家有较多劳动力,家庭成员参与医疗、养老保险以及家庭可便捷获取教育、医疗和信息服务,家庭贫困脆弱性有效缓解。农民职业技能培训、耕地占有量和家庭社会关系网络及农村农业机械化与合作组织发展未产生有效的贫困脆弱缓解效应。

Vulnerability Measurement, Dynamic Changes and Influencing Factors of Rural Household Poverty in China: An Empirical Study Based on the CFPS Database

Based on the CFPS database, the study empirically explores the level of rural household poverty vulnerability and its key influencing factors. The conclusions are as follows:the overall rural household poverty vulnerability in China firstly declines, and then rebounds and rises; there is a significant difference in poverty vulnerability of households with different geographic distribution and household characteristics. At the same time, there are both chronically vulnerable and dynamically vulnerable rural households. The characteristics of rural households and external development conditions significantly affect the vulnerability. The aging of the head of the household, the increase of sick, senile or underage family members, and the experience of natural disasters exacerbate the poverty vulnerability. However, the poverty vulnerability is effectively mitigated by some other factors, such as high educational background of the head of the household, the increase of laborers in family members, the participation in medical insurance and old-age insurance, and the household''s easy access to education, medical care and information services. Meanwhile, vocational farmer training, arable land holdings, household social networks, rural agricultural mechanization, as well as the development of cooperative organizations, do not have a remarkable effect on poverty vulnerability reduction.