云南河口1953年植胶以来气候变化与橡胶树寒害初步分析

通过对云南河口县气象站1956~2010年共55年的气象资料．以年均温、降雨量、年极端最高温及极端最低温为指标．初步分析了河口地区55年来气候变化趋势和特点。结果显示：年均温以每年0．0269℃的速度逐渐升高：年极端最高温以每年0．0219℃的速度及年极端最低温也以每年0．0417℃的速度在逐年上升；云南河口地区气候变暖趋势明显，虽然橡胶树寒害次数有所下降，尤其是从20世纪90年代以后，但受害频率和严重程度与气候变暖没有明显的相关性。

Preliminary analysis of Climate change and Rubber tree cold injury in Hekou County, Yunnan Province since 1953

According to the meteorological data from 1956 to 2010 from the meteorological bureau of Hekou county combined with the statistical data of 20 cold injury since rubber planting for 60 years,the climate change trends and characteristics of Hekou for 55 years is analyzed with annual average temperature,rainfall capacity,annual extreme maximum temperature and annual extreme lowest temperature as index. The results showed that the annual average temperature, the annual extreme maximum temperature and the annual extreme lowest temperature has increased by 0.0269 ℃, 0.0219℃ and 0.0417℃, respectively, indicating that the change tendency is significant. The number of rubber tree cold injury has decreased especially after 1990,but there is no significant correlation between the injury frequency and the severity. Thus, we should pay more attention to rubber cultivation against cold injury.