贵州省88个县(市、区)的生态安全评价与预警

为促进贵州省工农业生产的合理布局及生态建设的可持续发展,以贵州省88个县(市、区)为研究对象,根据自然-社会-经济系统构建生态安全预警评价指标体系,采用熵权法与层次分析法相结合确定指标基础权重,运用惩罚型变权模型对贵州2007—2013年88个县(市、区)生态安全状况进行预警研究。结果表明:2007—2013年贵州省生态安全预警指数变化介于0.4~0.7,该时段生态安全预警指数平均值依次为0.62、0.61、0.58、0.61、0.55、0.63和0.63,生态安全状况总体呈先降后升趋势。研究区中警区面积呈先增后减趋势,从2007年的114 117.45km~2增加至2011年的171 152.76km~2,再减少至2013年的85 495.56km~2;轻警区面积呈先减后增趋势,从2007年的62 050.51km~2减少至2011年的4 858.6km~2,再增加至2013年的90 515.8km~2。在县域尺度上,研究区绝大部分县(市、区)生态安全预警指数呈上升趋势;南明、云岩、钟山和红花岗等地生态安全预警指数总体呈下降趋势。

Ecological Security Evaluation and Early Warning of 88 Counties (Cities and Districts) in Guizhou

The ecological security status and early warning of 88 Counties (Cities and Districts), Guizhou during 2007~2013 are analyzed by the ecological security early warning evaluation index system built by nature-society-economy system, the index basic weight determined by the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process,and the punishment variable weight model to promote rational distribution of industrial and agricultural production and sustainable development of ecological construction in Guizhou.Results: The ecological security early warning index is 0.4~0.7 in Guizhou during 2007~2013.The average ecological security early warning index in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 is 0.62, 0.61, 0.58, 0.61, 0.55, 0.63 and 0.63 respectively, which indicates that the ecological security status presents a first declining and then rising trend overall.The area at the moderate warning level shows first rising and then declining trend (from 114 117.45 km2 in 2007 to 171 152.76 km2 in 2011 to 85 495.56 km2 in 2013).The area at the light warning level presents the first declining and then rising trend (from 62 050.51 km2 in 2007 to 4 858.6 km2 in 2011 to 90 515.8 km2 in 2013).The ecological security early warning index of most counties (cities and districts) presents the rising trend but the ecological security early warning index of Nanming, Yunyan, Zhongshan and Honghuagang, etc.shows a declining trend overall.