小麦赤霉病发生程度的气象动态预测模型

以1973—1998年上海地区小麦赤霉病发生程度为研究对象，用地面气象因子、500hPa高空环流因子和北太平洋海温场因子，选取相关系数较高且稳定性好的预测因子，然后在逐步回归和逐步判别分析方法基础上，集成建立了小麦赤霉病发生程度的动态预测模式。模式的起报时间分别为上年的11月下旬、当年的2月下旬和4月中旬。预测模式对1973—1998年的历史拟合和1999至2004年预测取得了较好的效果。

DIFFERENT PHASES METEROROLOGICAL FORECAST MODELS FOR DAMAGE DEGREE OF WHEAT SCAB (GIBBERELLA ZEAE)

Based on data about degree of damage caused by wheat scab (Gibberella zeae) in Shanghai from 1973 to 1998 and the weather elements of ground surface, circumfluence on 500 hPa layer and surface temperature field in the North Pacific, prediction factors were selected which had relatively high correlation coefficients. Then a different phases forecast model of damage degree of wheat scab was established with stepwise regression and stepwise differentiation. The initial forecast time of the model ranges from late November of the previous year and late February and mid April of the current year. The model fitted well with the historical data of 1973-1998 and gave good results when used in disease forecast in 1999-2004.