Predicting tree regeneration in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea abies</Emphasis> snag stands

A bark beetle (Ips typographus) infestation caused the death of almost all Norway spruce (Picea abies) trees in a mountain forest in the Swiss Alps. We developed a tree regeneration model, ‘RegSnag’ (=REGeneration in a SNAG stand), to project the future amount and height of tree regeneration in these snag stands. The model combines a height-class structured tree module with a microsite-based module of snag decay and ground-vegetation succession. Microsite-specific rates of germination, mortality and height growth were modelled for four tree species (Picea abies, Sorbus aucuparia, Acer pseudoplatanus and Betula pendula) in eight height classes (from seedlings to saplings 5 m tall) and on 26 microsite types (e.g. moss, grass). Model tests with independent field data from 8 years after the Picea die-back demonstrated that microsites had a considerable effect on the development of tree regeneration on both the montane and the subalpine level. With microsite-specific parameters, the height and frequency of Picea in each microsite could be simulated more accurately than without considering microsite effects (e.g. bias of 8 vs. 119 saplings ha⁻¹ on the montane level). Results of simulations 40 years into the future suggest that about 330–930 Picea saplings per ha out of those that germinated in 1994 and 1996 will reach a height of 5 m within 30–35 years after Picea die-back. This is due to differences in seed inflow and browsing intensities. Picea and not Betula or Sorbus trees will replace the current herbaceous vegetation in these snag stands.