基于解释结构模型和模糊分析的黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化——以河北省曲周县为例

为探索通过优化土地利用结构改善黄淮海平原区土地利用存在的不合理现象的途径,拟通过构建多目标规划模型,运用解释结构模型将区域土地利用目标量化至目标函数及约束条件中,采用模糊两阶段算法对土地利用结构进行优化,以曲周县为例,通过Markov算法计算出自然演化方案下土地利用结构(2035年),并将现状方案(2012年)、自然演化方案(2035年)、优化方案进行对比并进行分析。结果表明:1)经过优化后的曲周县土地利用结构(2.87)其满意度明显高于现状方案(2.80)、自然演化方案(2.23),土地利用结构合理度也更高,土地利用结构优化方案具有有效性。2)对自然演化方案进行分析发现,曲周县现行的经济驱动模式对于生态效益、区域水资源造成损害,不利于生态环境的改善。以多目标优化模型为基础框架,嵌入ISM和模糊分析的土地利用结构优化方法对于区域土地利用结构优化具有借鉴意义,结合区域土地利用优化目标,保持其余地类结构的相对稳定,协调平衡耕地、林地、城镇村及工矿用地和未利用地间的结构比例是区域土地利用结构优化的基本途径。

Optimization of land use structure in North China Plain based on ISM and fuzzy analysis: A case study of Quzhou County in Hebei Province

In order to solve the developmental problem caused by the unreasonable structure and achieve the efficiency from land use structure, a multi-objective programming model is constructed in this study. The targets of the objective function and the constraint conditions of regional land use are quantified by ISM and fuzzy two stage algorithm is used to optimize the land use structure. Taking Quzhou County as an example, the current plan (2012) is compared with the optimization scheme and the natural evolution of land use structure (2035), which is operated by the Markov algorithm. The results show that:1) The satisfaction of optimized utilization structure (2.87) is significantly higher than the current plan (2.80), natural evolution scheme (2.23). And the rationality also is the highest one. The optimization scheme has a certain validity. 2) Taking an analysis on the natural evolution scheme, it is found that the current economic driving mode in Quzhou County causes damage to its water resources and regional ecological benefit. And it is also not conducive to the improvement of the ecological environment. The main concluions are:1) Based on the multi-objective optimization model, the optimization method of land use structure embedded in ISM and fuzzy analysis has implications for the optimization of regional land use structure. 2) Combining regional land-use optimization objectives, maintaining the relative stability of the rest of the land structure, and coordinating the balance between cultivated land, residential quarters and industrial land, forest land and unused land are the basic approaches for optimization of regional land use structure.