基于SLEUTH模型的鄂尔多斯城市扩张模拟分析

为准确获取城市扩张信息,预测城市扩张趋势以指导城市规划,优化城市空间结构,以鄂尔多斯市为研究区,通过解译2000、2005、2010和2015年遥感影像,获取研究区土地利用分类信息,进而采用面积数量、扩张强度指数分析城镇用地历史变化特征及扩张模式,在此基础上利用SLEUTH模型开展城市空间扩张的长时间序列模拟预测。结果表明:研究时段内城镇用地持续增长,其扩张态势大致经历了"平稳-快速急剧-低速"的发展阶段,在平稳阶段,扩张强度适中,城市呈现出显著的外延式扩张模式;在快速急剧阶段,扩张强度最大,城市在南北方向上呈星状蔓延式扩张模式,并出现了新的增长中心;低速发展阶段,扩张强度最小,以外延-内部填充式的模式进行扩张;模型预测结果发现2020—2030年城市扩张态势将呈现出各功能片区平稳对接、条带状发展的空间格局,以内部填充为主。

Simulation analysis of urban expansion in Ordos based on SLEUTH model

In order to obtain urban expansion information accurately, predict urban expansion trend to guide urban planning and optimize urban spatial structure, taken Ordos as study area, and obtain land use classification information by interpreting four years'' remote sensing images, including 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. And then used area quantity index, expansion strength index to analyze the historical change characteristics and expansion model of urban land use. Finally, based on SLEUTH model to carry out the long time series simulation prediction of urban space expansion. The results show that the growth of urban land in the study period has undergone the development stage of steady-fast and rapid-low speed. In the steady stage, the expansion intensity was moderate, and the city showed a significant extension pattern. In the fast and rapid stage, the expansion intensity was the largest, the city in the north and south direction of the star-like spread pattern, and a new growth center appeared. In the low-speed development stage, the expansion intensity was the smallest, expanded with the extension-internal filling pattern. The model prediction results show that the urban expansion trend in 2020 to 2030 will present the spatial pattern of the smooth docking and strip development of each functional zone, which is based on the internal filling.