| 新疆石河子地区降水量变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 凌红波,徐海量,史薇.新疆石河子地区降水量变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 凌红波 徐海量 史薇 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;中国科学院研究生院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC17B01)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据石河子地区4个区域(石河子市,莫索湾垦区,下野地垦区,安集海垦区)1959-2006年的年均降水量资料,利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验和时间序列的线性趋势检验得到:石河子地区的年际降水量总体呈上升趋势,但该趋势在0.05水平上不显著;通过Morlet小波变换对石河子地区降水量进行了多时间尺度的周期性变化分析和趋势预测,结果表明:石河子市,安集海,下野地,莫索湾垦区分别在15a,16a,14a,16a的中心时间尺度上存在约4个主周期,6a,5a,6a,6a的时间尺度上存在约9个次周期;2006年后的一段时间内石河子地区降水量可能呈下降趋势,经过2a左右以后该区将进入降水量的偏少期,并将有5年左右的持续时间。
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| 关 键 词： | 石河子地区 降水序列 Mann-Kendall检验 小波分析 |
Variation characteristics of precipitation in Shihezi District,Xinjiang |
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| LING Hongbo,XU Hailiang,SHI Wei.Variation characteristics of precipitation in Shihezi District,Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2010(2). |
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| Authors: | LING Hongbo XU Hailiang SHI Wei |
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| Institution: | Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography;Chinese Academy of Sciences;Urumqi 830011;P.R.China |
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| Abstract: | With Mann-Kendall rank correlation test and liner trend analysis of time series,the average annual precipitation of Shihezi City,Mosuowan,Xiayedi,and Anjihai Reclamation Region in Shihezi District from 1959 to 2006 were studied.It was found there was a raising tendency of inter-annual rainfall in Shihezi District but not significantly(p> 0.05).then,its periodical variation from multi-temporal scales was analyzed by the Morlet wavelet transform.The results showed that there were four primary periods of 15,16... |
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| Keywords: | Shihezi District precipitation sequence Mann-Kendall test wavelet analysis |
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