我国进口俄罗斯木材趋势分析

对我国进口俄罗斯木材的历史数据进行分析,并根据灰色预测GM（1,1）模型理论,建立我国进口俄罗斯原木、锯材、板材预测模型,以此预测2015年我国对俄罗斯原木、锯材、板材的进口数量以及未来几年我国进口俄罗斯木材的总体趋势,从而为我国木材流通领域的宏观调控提供依据,保证整个社会经济的协调发展。

Analysis of Russian Timber Imports Trend in China

The supply of wood is gradually reduced after the implementation of ＂Natural Forest Protection Project＂ in China.At the same time,timber supply and demand gap is constantly expanding.As Russia is an important country to supply wood to China,it is essential to make a reasonable forecast on wood import between the two countries.This paper analyzed the historical wood import data between Russia and China,and established a prediction model of the imported log,sawlog,and board based on theory of Grey Prediction Model（GM（1,1））.The model was used to predict the import amount of timber in 2015 and the general trend of wood import in the next few years,which could provide a standard basis of macro-control in wood circulation area and guarantee the coordinated development of the whole social economy.