1967-2018年托木尔峰国家级自然保护区降水时空变化特征

本文选取1967—2018年托木尔峰国家级自然保护区周围6个气象站点的降水数据,对其降水量、降水日数、降水强度进行线性回归分析以及可信度检验。采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法对其降水量进行突变分析,检测降水发生变化的年份。结果显示:①托木尔峰国家级自然保护区多年的降水量、降水日数、降水强度均呈波动增长的趋势。年降水量、降水日数与降水强度均通过显著性水平(α=0. 05)检验。②托木尔峰国家级自然保护区的降水季节性差异明显,降水主要集中在夏季,增湿主要集中在夏季与秋季。各季节降水量均呈波动增长趋势,通过对各个季节降水量与降水强度增加趋势的可信度检验,发现在0. 05水平下春、夏、秋季降水量增加趋势明显,冬季降水强度增加趋势明显。③通过对年降水量的突变分析发现突变年份为1997年,并通过显著性水平(α=0. 05)检验。

Spatiotemporal Variation of Precipitation in Tomur Peak Nature Reserve from 1967 to 2018

In this paper, the precipitation data from 6 meteorological stations around Tomur Peak Nature Reserve from 1967 to 2018 were selected for linear regression analysis and reliability test of precipitation, precipitation days and precipitation intensity. The results showed that: ①The annual precipitation, precipitation days and precipitation intensity in Tomur Peak Nature Reserve were all in a fluctuating trend, and they all passed the significance level (α=0.05) test; ②The seasonal difference of precipitation in Tomur Peak Nature Reserve was obvious. Precipitation was mainly concentrated in summer, and the humidification was mainly concentrated in summer and autumn. Seasonal precipitation was in an increase trend in a fluctuation way. The credibility test of the increase trend of precipitation and precipitation intensity in each season revealed that the increase trend of precipitation in spring, summer and autumn was obvious at the level of 0.05, and the increase trend of precipitation intensity in winter was obvious; ③An annual precipitation mutation occurred in 1997, and the significance level (α=0.05) was tested.