基于Z-score模型的财务风险分析——以新疆天润乳业为例

Z-score模型是由Edward Altman提出的衡量企业财务风险的多元模型。本文以新疆天润乳业股份有限公司（简称“新疆天润乳业”）为例,基于Z-score模型的适用性,结合企业发布的财务数据公告,利用传统的会计财务风险分析与Z-score模型财务风险分析相结合的方法,分析发生财务风险的原因,并将新疆天润乳业与同行业龙头企业内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称“伊利股份”）进行横向比较,提出对应的对策和思路。结果表明,新疆天润乳业的财务状况较好,短期内出现破产的概率较低,但是与同行业龙头企业伊利股份相比还是有一定的差距。

Financial Risk Analysis Based on Z-score Model -- Taking Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd as an Example

The Z-score model is a multivariate model proposed by Edward Altman to measure the financial risk of an enterprise. Taking Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd.as an example,this paper combined the applicability of the Z-score model with the financial statement,using traditional financial accounting risk analysis with Z - score model financial risk analysis method,to analyze the cause of the financial risk. Furthermore,this work compared Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd with its leading corporation,Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. in the same dairy industry and put forward corresponding countermeasures. The research results indicated that Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd. is in a healthy financial position,and the possibility of financial crisis in the short term is relatively low. But there is still a certain gap compared with Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. which is the leading enterprise in the dairy industry.