土地财政与土地城镇化互动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

为考察土地财政与土地城镇化的互动关系,本研究在理论分析的基础上,采用计量经济分析方法对中国1999—2015年省级层面二者关系进行了检验。研究结果表明:1)土地财政与土地城镇化具有双向互动关系,可分为引致用地需求、土地城镇化扩张和土地财政再扩充3个阶段;2)实证分析显示,土地财政和土地城镇化存在相互促进的统计学关系,土地城镇化进程在短期内会引起土地财政的逐渐增加,而土地财政对于土地城镇化有长期的持续性正向影响,分别与理论分析中的3个阶段相匹配;3)脉冲响应和方差分解的结果均显示土地城镇化对土地财政冲击的响应较为灵敏和强烈,说明土地财政显著影响了我国的土地城镇化进程。地方政府应积极推进土地财税制度改革,严格把控城市拓展边界,最大限度地发挥城市土地的价值。

Research on the interactive relationships between land finance and land urbanization: An empirical analysis based on VAR model

To investigate the interactive relationships between land finance and land urbanization, based on theoretical analyses, this study used econometric analysis methods to analyze the relevant data of China from 1999 to 2015 at provincial level. The results showed that there were bidirectional interactive relationships existing between land finance and land urbanization. They could be divided into three phases:driving land-use demand, land urbanization expanding and land finance replenishing. And the results from empirical studies argued that land finance and land urbanization statistically motivated each other. In the short term, the land urbanization led to the gradual increase of land finance, and the land finance had a long-term positive impact on land urbanization, which was consistent with the three phases in theoretical analysis. It was revealed that land urbanization was very sensitive to the disturbance of land finance in both impulse response function and variance decomposition. In conclusion, the land finance significantly affected the process of land urbanization of China. Local governments should actively promote the reform of land finance and taxation system, control urban growth boundary and maximize the value of urban land.