我国居民肉类消费特征及趋势判断——基于双对数线性支出模型和LA/AIDS模型

为分析我国城乡居民肉类消费水平及其结构特征,判断居民肉类消费的未来趋势,基于FAO和统计年鉴等相关统计数据,运用双对数线性支出模型和LA/AIDS模型(Linear approximated/Almost ideal deal demand system模型),测算我国及城乡居民肉类消费需求的价格弹性和收入弹性。结果显示我国居民肉类消费量不断增加,且城乡居民肉类消费差距逐步缩小。居民对牛羊肉需求的收入弹性最大,禽肉次之,猪肉最小。其中,农村居民对各项肉类消费需求的收入弹性均显著高于城镇。我国居民的牛羊肉需求对自身价格及其他肉类价格变动较敏感,猪肉需求对自身价格与其他肉类价格变动敏感度较低。由此推断,未来我国居民对牛羊肉消费将呈波动增长态势,而对猪肉的消费呈缓慢增长,但消费量趋于稳定。

Chinese residents' meat consumption characteristics and trend judgment: Based on the double-log linear expenditure model and LA/AIDS model

In order to analyze the meat consumption level and its structural characteristics of both urban and rural residents in China, and judge the future trend of meat consumption, the relevant statistical data such as FAO and statistical yearbook were taken as study material. The price elasticity and income elasticity of the meat consumption demand of urban and rural residents in China were measured by using double logarithmic linear expenditure model and LA/AIDS model(Linear approximated/Almost ideal deal demand system model). The results showed that the meat consumption was increasing, and the gap in meat consumption between urban and rural residents was gradually narrowing. Residents had higher income elasticity of beef and mutton demand, followed by poultry and pork. The income elasticity of rural residents'' demand for meat consumption was significantly higher than that of urban residents''. Besides, the demand for beef and mutton in China was sensitive to the changes of beef, mutton and other meat prices. The resident''s demand of pork was less sensitive to changes of pork price and other meat prices. In conclusion, the consumption of beef and mutton in China will fluctuate, while the consumption of pork will increase slowly, but the consumption will stabilize.