最低地温与最低气温关系的统计分析

运用数学统计学方法和气象学原理，选用巴彦淖尔市乌拉特中旗2005-2011年、临河区2006-2008年夜间有云能天连续观测年份的自动站地面A文件资料，对乌拉特中旗、临河区夜间2：00-7：00时天气状况下的最低地温和最低气温差值的年、月平均值进行了分析。结果表明：乌拉特中旗、临河最低地温与最低气温之间存在很好的正相关线性关系，而且二者之间的关系主要与夜间不同天气状况关系较大，与站与站之间以及春秋两季季节关系不大。基于不同天气状况对最低地温与最低气温差值的影响程度个别有相近之处，归类建立了4个以最低气温为基础的最低地温预报模型，并通过该模型的相关性检验得到了它们之间有很好的一致性，方程通过显著性检验。建立的预报方程可以为短期天气预报提供参考。

Statistical Analysis of Relationship between the Lowest Ground Temperature and the Minimum Temperature

Based on the continuously observed cloud data collected from Wulatezhong county from 2005 to 2011 and Linhe district from 2006 to 2008, the annual and monthly mean value of difference value between the lowest ground temperature and the minimum temperature during 2 am to 7 am at night in the above two regions were analyzed by using mathematical statistics method and meteorology principle. The results showed that there was positively related linear relation between the lowest ground temperature and the minimum temperature both in Wulatezhong county and Linhe district, and the relation between them was closely related to the different weather conditions but was little related to the differences between various observation stations and spring and autumn. Based on the individual similar effect of various weather conditions on the difference value between the lowest ground temperature and the minimum temperature, four forecasting models of the lowest ground temperature on the basis of the minimum temperature were established. The result of correlation test of the models proved the good consistency between them and the established formula passed the significance test. The model established in this study may provide a reference for the short-term weather forecast in the two regions.