| Abstract: | Widespread spontaneous evacuation, the tendency for people to evacuate even when not advised to do so, has been highlighted as one of the likely behavioral responses to a nuclear power plant emergency. Utility company representatives contend that protective action advisories can be structured so as to stifle the magnitude and geographic extent of spontaneous evacuation. Data from a utility-company-sponsored telephone survey of households on Long Island, New York, where the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station is located, are used in this paper to test this proposition. Analyses of responses given to three sets of increasingly serious reactor accident scenarios, with and without information instructing people what protective actions to take, raise serious questions about the ability of emergency notification messages to affect human behavior in a radiological emergency. The results suggest firstly, that even if people me specifically advised not to evacuate, most would be inclined to do so; and secondly, that attempts to stifle the propensity to evacuate among those who are not at risk are likely to increase the propensity to stay behind among those who are at risk and should evacuate. |
