石河子地区近48年来气候变化对棉花产量影响分析

根据石河子地区3个气象台站1961-2008年的气象资料，建立石河子地区年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、积温、无霜期及日照时数时间序列，利用距平、一元线性回归、相关性检验、小波分析等方法，对石河子地区近48年来5个基本气象要素变化进行分析。结果表明：(1)近48年来石河子地区年平均最高气温、最低气温除年际间的微小波动外,均呈现出上升趋势，前者变化幅度小于后者，气温年较差呈减小趋势；（2）≥10℃的年积温呈现出显著增多趋势，其上升幅度为93.1℃/10年，相关系数为0.546，通过了置信度α=0.01的显著性水平检验，且年平均积温主时间周期为16年，存在8年正负振荡；(3)无霜期及日照时数都呈增多趋势，但增多趋势不显著,而积温与日照时数呈显著的正相关。最后分析了石河子地区积温,年日照时数等热量的增多对棉花产量的影响。

Climatic change of ShiHeZi and its influence on cotton production in recent 48 years

Based on daily temperature（maximum and minimum） and accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ and frost-free period and sunshine hours duration data at 3 meteorological stations over Shihezi observed during the 1961-2008 period,forecasting method like linear-trend analysis ,regression analysis and wavelet analysis,the trend of change of heat resources and the local cotton yield are analyzed. The results were as follows：（1） Over the 1961-2008 periods,the average maximum temperature,minimum temperature had significantly ascendant trend except slight fluctuations between the interannual and the former to the latter,changes in temperature than poorer showed a trend of decrease. （2）Over the same period,the accumulative temperature of ≥10℃ increased remarkably and the trend rates are 93.1℃ /10a,the series displaies significant characteristics of periodic oscillations with 16 yearly periods and 8 years plus or minus oscillation by the morlet wavelet method. （3）The annual sunshine hours and the frost in the area are increasing,but the trend was not significant.