基于组合模型的安徽省城镇化演进对耕地影响前景研究

目的]探索安徽省城镇化演进对耕地影响的前景,为管理层制定协调城镇化发展与耕地保护政策提供依据。方法]运用LMDI分解模型对城镇化进程引致的耕地面积减少份额进行了计算;借助SPSS分析软件,采用最佳拟合优度曲线估计方法,对城镇化与耕地变化间耦合函数关系进行了考察;基于Logistic模型对城镇化演进趋势进行了预测;依据城镇化与耕地耦合关系及城镇化演进趋势,测算了城镇化发展对耕地影响的前景。结果]1996—2011年,安徽省城镇化进程引致耕地面积年均减少1 097.87hm2,人口城镇化率每提升1个百分点,耕地面积减少795.20hm2;城镇化与耕地变化间以二次曲线拟合最优;安徽省2020,2030年人口城镇化率分别达到58.44%,68.25%;2020年前,城镇化发展将导致耕地年均减少3 804.94hm2,城镇化水平每提升1个百分点,将导致耕地减少2 549.37hm2,2021—2030年,城镇化演进将导致耕地年均减少11 179.42hm2;城镇化水平每提升1个百分点,将导致耕地减少11 395.94hm2。结论]未来城镇化演进对耕地的影响将日趋激烈,耕地保护与生态安徽建设将面临较大挑战。

A Study on Prospect of Urbanization Influence on Cultivated Land Resources in Anhui Province Based on Combined Forecasting Model

Objective] This study explored the influences of urbanization on the cultivated land resources in Anhui Province in order to provide theoretical base for policy making in urbanization development and cultivated land protection.Methods] The reduced area of cultivated land caused by urbanization was calculated by using the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI) decomposition method. By using SPSS software, the coupling functional relationship between urbanization and the decline in cultivated land area was investigated by curve estimation based on the optimum goodness of fit. According to the Logistic regression model, the evolution trend of urbanization in Anhui Province was predicted. Moreover, based on the obtained coupling relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources as well as the evolution trend of urbanization, the impacts of urbanization on the cultivated lands were estimated.Results] The results indicated that, during the period from 1996 to 2011, the area of cultivated land reduced at a rate of approximately 1097.87 hm² per year due to the urbanization in Anhui Province, and every 1% increase in urbanization rate resulted in 795.20 hm² decline in the area of cultivated land. The quadratic curve fitting was optimal for describing the relationship between urbanization and the cultivated land resources. The urbanization of the population in Anhui Province was expected to reach to 58.44% and 68.25% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Specifically, before 2020, due to the effects of urbanization, the cultivated lands were expected to reduced by 3804.94 hm² per year, and every 1% increase in urbanization rate would result in 2549.37 hm² decline in cultivated land area. From 2021 to 2030, the cultivated lands were expected to be reduced by 11179.42 hm² per year, and every 1% increase in urbanization rate would result in 11395.94 hm² decline in cultivated land area.Conclusion] The impacts of the urbanization on cultivated land are expected to be intensified, and the protection of cultivated land will be a great challenge in the future.