半干旱黄土区降水和气温对北川河径流的影响

目的]揭示山西省方山县北川河上游流域降水和气温对北川河径流的影响,为分析三川河上游流域乃至黄河中游流域径流量的变化原因提供参考。方法]利用圪洞控制站数据,采用回归分析、累计距平、多元线性回归模型等方法分析了山西省方山县北川河上游流域1985—2009年间的气象数据、北川河径流变化特征及其相关性。结果]北川河流域1985—2009年年降水量变化波动性大,整体呈现不明显的下降趋势。最高、最低气温2003年出现骤变,与气温的升高趋势相反,潜在蒸散发呈逐渐下降趋势。北川河年径流量变化差异较大,具有一定的阶段性和突变性,整体呈不明显的下降趋势。结论]年降水量与温度是影响北川河径流量的主要因子,降水量中汛期降水量占主导地位。

Influence of Rainfall and Temperature on Runoff of Beichuan River in Semiarid Loess Region

Objective] The influence of rainfall and temperature in semiarid loess region on runoff of Beichuan River was studied in order to provide reference for the analysis of the reasons for the change in upper reaches of Sanchuan River basin and the runoff in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Methods] The data from Qiandong station was analyzed by regression analysis model, accumulative anomaly model and multiple-linear regression model. Results] Great changes existed in Beichuan drainage basin from 1989 to 2009, totally expressing an inconspicuous decreasing trend. The highest and the lowest temperature appeared in 2003, on the contrary, latent evapotranspiration presented the declining trend. The annual runoff of Beichuan river had great diversity, qualified certain degree of phased nature and mutation, showing an inconspicuous decreasing trend as a whole. Conclusion] It is indicated that annual precipitation and temperature are the main factors influencing the runoff volume of Beichuan River, and the rainfall of flood reason plays the leading role in precipitation of this basin.