试论元胞自动机模型与LUCC时空模拟

对土地利用变化过程的模拟和预测,需要地理信息系统(GIS)等相关技术的支撑。但目前GIS不能完整地表达地理实体的时态信息和时空关系,缺乏时空分析和动态模拟的能力。元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,简称CA)是一种自下而上的动态模拟建模框架,具有模拟地理复杂系统时空演化过程的能力。本文从元胞自动机的原理和特征入手,介绍了CA模型的构造方法,对CA模型应用于土地利用变化过程的动态模拟及预测的可操作性进行了探讨,并分析了其应用现状,存在的问题及前景。

CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL SIMULATION OF LUCC

In modeling of spatial-temporal process of Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC), support of the Geographical Information System (GIS) and other relative technologies are needed. But the present GIS cannot completely express the temporal information and spatial-temporal relationship of geographical entities, lacking the capability of spatial- temporal analysis and dynamical modeling. Cellular Automata (CA) are a kind of dynamically modeling framework ?from bottom to top?and possess the capability of modeling spatial-temporal evolvement process of a complicated geographical system. To proceed with the principle and features of CA, the paper introduces the method for structuring the model and explore feasibility and operability of the CA model in modeling and forecasting spatial-temporal process of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC). In the end, status, existing problems and prospects of its application are analyzed.