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Managing and learning with multiple models: Objectives and optimization algorithms
Authors:William J.M. Probert  Cindy E. Hauser  Eve McDonald-Madden  Michael C. Runge  Peter W.J. Baxter  Hugh P. Possingham
Affiliation:aCentre for Applied Environmental Decision Analysis, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4069, Australia;bThe Department of Mathematics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4069, Australia;cAustralian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Parkville VIC 3010, Australia;dCentre for Applied Environmental Decision Analysis, The School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville VIC 3010, Australia;eCSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, 306 Carmody Rd., St. Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia;fUnited States Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center,12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708, USA
Abstract:
The quality of environmental decisions should be gauged according to managers’ objectives. Management objectives generally seek to maximize quantifiable measures of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. Reaching these goals often requires a certain degree of learning about the system. Learning can occur by using management action in combination with a monitoring system. Furthermore, actions can be chosen strategically to obtain specific kinds of information. Formal decision making tools can choose actions to favor such learning in two ways: implicitly via the optimization algorithm that is used when there is a management objective (for instance, when using adaptive management), or explicitly by quantifying knowledge and using it as the fundamental project objective, an approach new to conservation.This paper outlines three conservation project objectives – a pure management objective, a pure learning objective, and an objective that is a weighted mixture of these two. We use eight optimization algorithms to choose actions that meet project objectives and illustrate them in a simulated conservation project. The algorithms provide a taxonomy of decision making tools in conservation management when there is uncertainty surrounding competing models of system function. The algorithms build upon each other such that their differences are highlighted and practitioners may see where their decision making tools can be improved.
Keywords:Adaptive management   Conservation biology   Decision theory   Uncertainty   Optimization   Stochastic dynamic programming
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