调水工程两部制水价风险分析

两部制水价能有效降低调水工程的经营风险，但也存在不安全因素。本文阐述了两部制水价实施过程中的风险来源；根据两部制水价的结构特征，提出利用总亏损率、短期亏损率、水价超额率以及总风险度来度量不同基本水量方案的风险程度。在核算供水成本的基础上，计算了在实际供水量不足的情况下，三种水价方案的风险程度，得出胶东调水工程的基本水量不宜超过设计供水量的20%的结论，并通过灵敏度分析证明该方案具有一定的抗风险能力。

Risk Analysis of Two-part Water Price of water dispatch project

Although the two-part water price can reduce the manage risk of water dispatch project efficiently, it also has insecurity factors. In this paper the risk source in the implement of two-part water price is illustrated. Based on the construction characteristic of two-part water price, it is promoted that the total loss ratio, short term loss ratio, water price overrun ratio and total risk degree are used to measure the risk degree of water price schemes which have different basic water amount. The water supply cost is calculated, under which the risk degree of three water price schemes are calculated when the actual water supply is inadequate, and the conclusion is obtained that the feasible basic water amount of Jiaodong water dispatch project is the 20% percent of designed water supply amount, which scheme is proved to be risk resistant through sensitivity analysis.