基于模糊综合评判的杭锦旗水资源承载力评价

库布齐沙漠横贯杭锦旗全境，水资源承载力是制约其生态环境与社会经济发展的关键因素。选取人均水资源量、水资源利用率、生态用水率、供水量模数、农民年人均纯收入、人口密度、耕地灌溉率7个主要因素作为评价指标，应用模糊综合评判模型，定量评价了杭锦旗2008—2014年水资源承载力动态变化情况。结果表明:杭锦旗水资源承载力总体上表现为逐年上升趋势，综合评分值最大为0.508，但是在2008—2009年出现了波动，同时杭锦旗水资源开发利用已接近其承载力极限，但仍有一定的开发潜力，能保证杭锦旗经济社会发展需求。

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Hangjin County Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Model

Hobq desert traverses the whole territory of Hangjin County. Water resources carrying capacity is the key factor that restrains eco-environment and social-economic development of this county. We selected the per capita water resources, water resources use rate, ecological water use rate, water supply modulus, farmers per capita net income, population density and farmland irrigation rate as evaluation indices. Based on fuzzy comprehensive method, we carried out a quantitative evaluation on the dynamic of water resources carrying capacity from 2008 to 2014 in Hangjin County. The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity in Hangjin County was on the positive tendency, the maximum comprehensive evaluation value was 0.508, but there were fluctuations in 2008 and 2009. Water resources carrying capacity in Hangjin County is close to its bearing capacity limit, but there is still a certain development potential to ensure economic and social development demands in Hangjin County.