我国双季稻全要素生产率的时空分析及对策建议

提高双季稻生产率对于当前我国粮食稳产保供具有重要意义。基于加总数量全要素生产率测算方法，利用2004—2018年全国9个双季稻主产省份数据，分析我国双季稻全要素生产率及其分解指数变动情况。结果表明：2004—2018年我国早籼稻、晚籼稻的全要素生产率分别为1.081、0.931；双季稻全要素生产率在2004—2008、2014—2018年小幅上升，在2009—2013年波动下降；全要素生产率的增长主要来自技术进步和规模扩张的贡献；在双季稻优势产区中，长江流域的全要素生产率指数高于东南沿海，其中规模的扩大起决定性作用。因此，建议发挥主产区优势，把适度恢复双季稻生产作为粮食稳面积、保产量的有效途径，进一步提高良种采用率及机械化水平，加大政策支持力度，保障种稻基本收益，激励农户重拾种植积极性。

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Total Factor Productivity of Double Cropping Rice in China and Its Countermeasures

Double cropping rice plays an important role in ensuring food security in China. Based on estimation method of total quantity total factor productivity （TFP）， the annual data of 9 major double cropping rice producing provinces in China were used to estimate the variation of TFP and its decomposition index of double cropping rice in China from 2004 to 2018. It was found that the TFP of early Indica rice and late Indica rice in China from 2004 to 2018 was 1.081 and 0.931， respectively. The total factor productivity increased slightly from 2004 to 2008 and from 2014 to 2018， but showed a wavelike decrease from 2009 to 2013. The increase of TFP of double cropping rice was mainly attributed to the contribution of technological progress and scale expansion. Among the dominant production areas of double cropping rice， the TFP index of double cropping rice in the Yangtze River basin was higher than that in the southeast coast， among which the expansion of the scale played a decisive role. Therefore， this paper suggested that the regional advantages should be utilized， promote the large-scale production of double-cropping rice， increase the adoption rate of superior varieties and the level of mechanization， ensure the basic income from rice planting， mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers， and further safeguard national food security.