时间序列法在参考作物腾发量分析与模拟中的应用

把时间序列法应用于参考作物腾发量的模拟中，经研究和分析计算证明：参考作物的腾发量由一个呈周期性变化的周期分量和一个随机变化的随机分量构成。用该方法对农田灌溉研究所商丘试验站1977～1986年的参考作物腾发量进行了分析与模拟，在一定精度上能够准确地反映出参考作物腾发量在长时期内的变化过程，为灌溉工程的规划、设计和管理提供了依据。

Application of Time Series Method in the Analysis and Simulation of Crop Evapotranspiration

In this paper, Time Series Method is applied in the simulation of the crop evapotranspiration. Through analysis and study, it is shown that the crop evapotranspiration can be represented by the adding-up of a deterministic periodic-process component and a stochastic component. The periodic component reflects the effects of periodic crop growth processes and periodic climate processes, and the stochastic component reflects the effect of stochastic fluctuation on crop evapotranspiration such as the wind-speed and other meteorological factors. Analysis and simulation of the crop evapotranspiration at Shangqiu Experimental Station of the institute from 1977 to 1986 are carried through. The results demonstrate that this method can reflect the long-term changing processes of reference crop evapotranspiration with high precision, and can provide information for the planning, design and management of irrigation projects.