灰色关联投影模型在城市土地生态安全评价中的应用

目的]构建城市土地生态安全综合评价指标体系,对2004,2009和2014年南昌市土地生态安全动态变化特征及主要障碍因子进行分析,为区域土地利用决策和生态维护提供方法基础和理论参考。方法]利用灰色关联投影模型,引入安全水平变化动态度、安全水平标准差,开展土地生态安全动态评价及分析,运用障碍度模型诊断土地生态安全的影响因子和障碍度。结果](1)2004—2014年南昌市土地生态安全总水平缓慢提升,但安全水平处于低层次的低度安全等级,环境子系统从缓慢提升跌入缓慢退化阶段,经济子系统经历了由快速提升到缓慢提升阶段的变化,社会子系统始终处于缓慢提升变化状态,土地生态安全系统的内部协调性逐渐提高;(2)南昌市土地生态安全水平的障碍因子类别、障碍度及因子排序在时序上处于动态变化之中,障碍因子经历了从经济类因素向资源环境类因素的转变过程;(3)南昌市应针对土地生态系统安全暴露的问题,从土地可持续利用和健康城镇化入手,促进环境、经济、社会的和谐发展。结论]土地生态安全评价结果符合客观实际,并针对土地生态系统暴露的主要问题提出相关对策措施。

Application of Grey Relation Projection Model to Evaluating Urban Land Ecological Security

Objective] An comprehensive evaluation index system of urban land ecological security was established and the dynamic change of land ecological security and the main obstacle indicators were analyzed in 2004, 2009 and 2014. These were expected to provide bases for regional land use decision-making and ecological maintenance.Methods] Dynamic evaluation and land ecological security were analyzed using grey relation projection model, dynamic degree and standard deviation. The obstacle indicators and its degree of land ecological security were measured by obstacle degree model.Results] (1) The total degree of land ecological security during 2004-2014 increased slowly, but generally it was still in a lower level. The environmental subsystem had experienced two stages from slow promotion to gradual degradation; simultaneously, the economic one also had experienced two stages from rapid promotion to slow promotion; meanwhile, the social one always had been in a slow promotion stage. The internal coordination degree of land ecological security was improved gradually. (2) The categories, the obstacle degree, and the order of obstacle factors of land ecological security were all in dynamic change, the obstacle factors had evolved from economic factors to resources and environmental types. (3) In order to treat these problems exposed in land ecosystem security, it should be proceed with sustainable land use and healthy urbanization, hereby to achieve the coordinative development among economy, environment and the society of Nanchang City.Conclusion] The evaluation results of land ecological security research were thought accordant with the objective reality. In view of the main problems exposed to the land ecosystem, relevant countermeasures are put forward wherein.