竹小蜂发生发展的数量化预测模型

本文研究为害毛竹的竹小蜂的发生发展规律，应用数量化理论Ⅰ，建立了毛竹受害率的预测模型，经复相关系数t检验表明呈极显著相关，并用偏相关t检验和得分值范围比较表明：地形、竹林组成与结构和气候因子是影响竹小蜂发生发展的重要因素，该模型可以预测毛竹被竹小蜂为害的受害率及防治措施．

A Quantitative Model for Predicting Occurrence and Development of Aiolomorpha Rhopalodes

By applying quantification theory I, a model for predicting the destructive extent of Aiolomorpha rhopalodes on Phyllostachys pubescens stands was developed. T-test of multiple correlation and partial correlation coefficents, combined with the comparison on the loading of environmental factors, showed that topography, species composition and structure of the bamboo stand, and climate played the dominant role in affecting the development and distribution of Aiolomorpha rhopalodes. The results can be used in predicting the damaged degrees of the bamboo stands by the pests and formulating the corresponging control measures.