| 南亚热带12月低温预测模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈家豪,张潍民,陈家文,徐宗焕,吴仁烨.南亚热带12月低温预测模型及其应用[J].江西农业大学学报,2005,27(5):776-780. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈家豪 张潍民 陈家文 徐宗焕 吴仁烨 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建农林大学,福建,福州,350002;福建工程学院,福建,福州,350014;福建省气象科学研究所,福建,福州,350001;莆田华侨职业中专学校,福建,莆田,351117 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省科技攻关计划资助项目（2005Y002）和福建省教育厅资助项目（JA03071） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用周期图分析法和方差分析法对南亚热带的代表地漳州市1961～2003年共43a历年12月各旬日最低气温旬均值和各旬极端最低气温资料进行数学模拟，寻找南亚热带地区12月各旬低温的变化规律，建立了可以应用于南亚热带地区的12月各旬日最低气温旬均值的预测模型和各旬极端最低气温的预测模型，并分析南亚热带地区12月低温出现的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 南亚热带 低温 预测模型 果树 香蕉 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2286（2005）05-0776-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-07-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年7月29日 |
Analysis and Application of the Model for Forecasting Low Temperature in Dec. in South Subtropics |
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| CHEN Jia-hao,ZHANG Wei-min,CHEN Jia-wen,XU Zong-huan,WU Ren-ye.Analysis and Application of the Model for Forecasting Low Temperature in Dec. in South Subtropics[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitis Jiangxiensis,2005,27(5):776-780. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Jia-hao ZHANG Wei-min CHEN Jia-wen XU Zong-huan WU Ren-ye |
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| Institution: | 1. Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China; 2. Fujian University of Technol ogy, Fuzhou 350014, China; 3. Putian Profession Polytechnic School of Overseas Chinese, Putian 351117, China;4. Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou 350001, China; |
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| Abstract: | By means of cycle figure and variance analysis,the average value of the minimum daily temperature each ten days and the extreme minimum temperature of each ten days in Dec. from 1961 to 2003 in Zhangzhou City were simulated which is the representational place of south subtropics so as to search for the variation regularity of low temperature of each ten days in Dec. in south subtropics and the forecasting model of TxD and TxjD each ten days in Dec. was estabished, which can be applied in south subtropics. And through this model, the tendency of low temperature in Dec. in south subtropics was analysed. |
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| Keywords: | South subtropical zone low temperature predict models fruit tree banana |
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