2000—2010年全国森林病害发生、损失与趋势分析

基于2000—2010年全国森林病害发生面积、发生程度、全国森林面积等数据,定量估算森林直接经济损失与生态服务功能损失,分别采用多元线性回归法、方差分析方法分析我国森林病害发生面积、损失的特点与趋势及我国森林病害的主要发生区域,结果表明：（1）我国森林病害发生面积从2000年的9.35×105 hm2增加到2010年的1.29×106 hm2,增长38.11%,上升趋势显著。其中,轻度发生面积上升趋势显著,而中度与重度发生面积增长不明显;（2）2000—2010年间,西南区森林病害发生面积上升趋势显著,华北、华中、华南、西南、西北区轻度发生及西南区中度发生面积上升趋势显著;（3）导致森林病害发生面积呈增长趋势的贡献大小依次为：轻度（贡献率67.15%）〉中度（贡献率20.56%）〉重度（贡献率12.30%）;（4）对该趋势的贡献区域主要为西南地区（贡献率57.75%）与西北地区（贡献率42.25%）,其它地区贡献很小。同样地,导致森林病害轻度发生面积呈增长趋势的贡献区域也主要为西南地区（贡献率74.10%）与西北地区（贡献率25.9%）,其它地区贡献很小。（5）2000—2010年,因森林病害导致的蓄积损失呈显著增长趋势,从2000年的294.486万m3增加到2010年的309.863万m3,增长5.2%。但直接经济价值损失、生态服务价值损失变化趋势不显著。研究结果表明,过去11年间全国森林病害发生面积增长趋势明显,尤其是西南区与西北区,尽管新增面积以轻度病害为主,但新增蓄积损失等不容忽视。

Status Quo,Losses and Trend of Forest Diseases from 2000 to 2010 in China

In this study, we collected the data of forest diseases from 2000 to 2010, computed the loss of direct economy and ecological value, as well as analyzed the trend with multiple linear regression method and analyzed the regional difference with one-way ANONA. Results showed that （1） the total area of forest disease was increased by 38.11%, from 9.35 ~ 102 hm2 in 2000 to 1.29 ~ 106 hm2 in 2010, with an obvious up-trend during the past eleven years; （2） also, there is an obvious up-trend in the total area of forest disease in Southwest China as well as in the lightly-damaged areas by forest disease in North China, Central China, South China, Southwest China and Northwest China from 2000 to 2010; （3） the contribution for the increasing trend of forest disease area was the lightly-damaged area （with 67.15%） 〉 the moderately-damaged area （with 20.56%） 〉 severely-damaged area （with 12.30%）, as well as （4） was the region of Southwest China （57.75%） and Northwest China （42.25%）. And it was the same to the increasing trend of lightly-damaged areas, with 74.10% and 25.9% contn＇bution in Southwest China and Northwest China respectively; （5） loss of forest stock volumes caused by diseases was increased from 2,944,860 m3 in 2000 to 3,098,630 m3 in 2010, increasing by 5.2% and showing an obvious up-trend. So results showed that both the range and area of forest diseases were enlarged in the past eleven years, especially the region of Southwest China and Northwest China, and the new loss of forest resources should be slowed down by taking some control measures.