新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花生育期变化的定量气候驱动因子分析

为探究气候变化对新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花生育期变化的影响，选取1990—2020年新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花生育期及同期地面气象数据，运用最小二乘法、Mann-Kendall非参数突变检验、相关性分析和优势主导分析方法，分析新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花生育期变化规律及其定量气候驱动因子。结果表明:1990—2020年新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花播种-出苗期、出苗-现蕾期、现蕾-开花期、开花-吐絮期、吐絮-停止生长期和全生育期分别为15、35、31、77、35和190 d，播种-出苗期、出苗-现蕾期和全生育期均呈现极显著延长趋势，现蕾-开花期呈现极显著缩短趋势。1990—2020年新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区积温的增加是棉花播种-出苗期、出苗-现蕾期、吐絮-停止生长期和全生育期延长的主要气候驱动因子，贡献率分别为53.07%、34.03%、67.33%、25.54%；积温的减少是现蕾-开花期和开花-吐絮期缩短的主要气候驱动因子，贡献率分别为53.22%和27.29%。1990—2011和2012—2020年新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花现蕾-开花期的缩短均以积温的减少影响为主，贡献率分别为48.15%和55.35%。综上，1990—2020年新疆南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花各生育阶段积温的动态变化是导致棉花生育期呈现延长或缩短趋势的主要气候驱动因子。

Analysis of quantitative climate driving factors on cotton growth period change in Alar reclamation of southern Xinjiang

In order to explore the influence of climate change on the change of cotton growth period in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang, the cotton growth period data and surface meteorological data in the same period in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 were selected. The change law of cotton growth period and its quantitative climate driving factors were analyzed by using least square method, Mann-Kendall nonparametric mutation test, correlation analysis and dominant analysis method. The results show that: The average lengths of sowing-emergence stage, emergence-squaring stage, squaring-flowering stage, flowering-blossoming stage, boll opening-stop growth stage and whole growth period of cotton in Alar reclamation of southern Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 were 15, 35, 31, 77, 35 and 190 d. The lengths of sowing-emergence stage, emergence-squaring stage and whole growth period showed a very significant extension trend, and the length of squaring-flowering stage showed a very significant shortening trend. The increase of accumulated temperature in Alar reclamation of southern Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 was the main climatic driving factor for the extension of cotton sowing-emergence stage, emergence-squaring stage, boll opening-stop growth stage and whole growth period, and their contribution rates were 53. 07%, 34. 03%, 67. 33% and 25. 54%. The decrease of accumulated temperature was the main climatic driving factor for the shortening of the length of squaring-flowering stage and flowering-blowing stage, and their contribution rates were 53. 22% and 27. 29%. The shortening of cotton squaring period was mainly controlled by the decrease of accumulated temperature in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang in 1990-2011 and 2012-2020, and their contribution rates were 48. 15% and 55. 35%. In summary, the dynamic change of accumulated temperature at each growth stage in the Alar reclamation of southern Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 was the main climate driving factor leading to the extension or shortening of cotton growth period.