基于主成分回归分析方法的消费需求研究———以湖北省为例简

基于2002 ～2010年湖北省消费需求影响因素的时序数据,运用主成分分析法求出影响湖北省消费需求的主成分,然后运用最小二乘法与湖北省人均消费支出进行回归,得到主成分回归方程,并对其展开定量与定性分析.结果表明,少年儿童抚养比、老年抚养比和人均储蓄余额对人均消费支出具有正向促进作用,其指标每上升1％,人均消费支出将分别增加1.33％、1.30％和0.73％；而就业率、城乡收入差距、人均可支配收入、人均生产总值、一年期存款利率等对人均消费支出具有反向抑制作用,其值每上升1％,人均消费支出将下降0.29％、0.28％、0.29％、0.22％、0.13％.

The Application Research of Principal Component Regression Method to Consumer Demand

Based on time series data of consumer demand influencing factors in Hubei Province during 2002 - 2010, using principle compo- nent analysis method, the principle component influencing consumer demands in Hubei Province were obtained. Using method of least squares and per capita consumer output in Hubei Province, the principle component regression equation was obtained, and the quantitative and qualita- tive analysis was eondtueted. The results showed that, children dependency ratio, elderly dependency ratio and saving balance per capita has positive promoting effect on consumer output per capita, the index increased 1%, consumer output per capita increased I. 33%, 1.30% and 0.73%. Employment rate, urban and rural income gap, disposable income per capita, GDP per capita, one-year deposit interest rate has re- verse inhibition effect on consumer output per capita, the index increased 1% , consumer output per capita decreased 0.29% , 0.28% , 0.29% , 0.22% and 0.13%.