叶尔羌河近48年来径流演变规律研究

叶尔羌河是塔里木盆地西部最大的河流。文中以叶尔羌河流域的卡群站1957-2004年径流量的年序列资料为基础,通过累积距平探讨了径流的多年变化趋势,运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析了径流的突变特征,采用小波分析方法,进一步识别了叶尔羌河径流的周期演变特征。结果表明:1)叶尔羌河多年径流量呈现出略微增加的趋势,并有一定的阶段性;2)叶尔羌河径流量在统计上无明显的突变出现;3)叶尔羌河多年净流量存在4类尺度周期变化规律,2年左右、4-6年、11-13年、17-19年;主周期为2年、5年、13年和18年,其中5年的周期最为显著。

Rules of runoff variation of Yarkand River in recent 48 years

The Yarkand river is the biggest river in the western of Tarim Basin.According to the annual runoff time series at the Kaqun station of the Yarkand river from 1957 to 2004,we used accumulated anomaly,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis to distinguish the runoff evolution characteristics.The results showed that:(1) The annual runoff of Yarkand river showed a slight increase trend with variability.(2) The annual runoff of Yarkand river was no abrupt change in statistical significance.(3) The annual runoff of Yarkand river had four time scale,namely 2,4-6,11-13 and 17-19years,the principal periods of annual runoff of the Yarkand river were 2,5,13 and 18 years,and the 5-year period was especially outstanding.