耕地数量变化与经济发展动态关系研究——以陕西省为例

基于1978-2008年统计数据,采用计量经济分析方法探讨陕西省耕地数量变化与经济发展之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:陕西省耕地面积与人均GDP之间存在长期的均衡关系,但短期内会偏离这种均衡;陕西省经济发展对耕地数量变化的解释水平为10%左右,预测期内不断增强,而耕地数量变化能够解释经济发展的35%以上,但预测期内先增强后减弱。协调耕地保护与经济发展之间的矛盾,应集约利用土地,发展节地型产业和低碳经济,提高耕地占用的经济成本,加大财政强农惠农补贴力度。

Dynamic relationship between cultivated land quantity change and economic development in Shaanxi province

Based on statistical data from 1978 to 2008,the dynamic relationships between cultivated land quantity change and economic development of Shaanxi province were studied by econometric methods.The outcomes indicated that cultivated land quantity and GDP per capita had a long-term balanced relationship,but the equilibrium would be deviated in short term.The explanation ability of GDP per capita to cultivated land quantity was about 10% in Shaanxi province,but the ability increased in predicting period.The explanation ability of cultivated land quantity to GDP per capita was above 35%,but the ability strengthened at first and weakened in forecast period.We should use land intensively,develop land-saving industry and low carbon economy,enhance the economic cost of farmland diversion,and increase the strength of agricultural subsidies to coordinate the contradiction between farmland protection and economic development.