基于IPAT等式的甘肃省能源消费碳排放特征分析及情景预测

认清甘肃省的能源消费及碳排放特征对于实现"节能减排"目标制定具有重要的意义。文中在分析甘肃省1990～2009年能源碳排放量及其构成的基础上,利用IPAT等式分析了能源碳排放量中人类活动的影响,并对甘肃省未来的经济发展与碳排放量进行了情景预测。结果表明:在人口、收入和碳排放强度的共同作用下,2009年的能源碳排放量达到了3684.54×104t,为1990年的2.54倍。能源碳排放量的构成主要取决于能源消费结构的变化,通过能源结构调整促进低碳经济发展,还有巨大的潜力可挖。根据"脱钩"理论分析表明,甘肃省的碳排放还处于弱减物质化阶段,经济发展是以生态环境恶化为代价的,着力引进并发展可再生能源技术,有利于甘肃省实现可持续发展。

The characteristics of carbon emissions of Gansu Province from energy consumption and its scenario analysis based on IPAT identity

The characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption and its composition of Gansu Province from 1990 to 2009 were analyzed,the utility of IPAT identity in environment impact assessment was explored,and the future of Gansu Province's economic development and carbon emissions were predicted.The results showed that the carbon emissions from energy consumption in 2009 amounted to 3684.54 t,which was 2.54 times of 1990.The composition of the carbon emissions mainly depended on changes in the structure of energy consumption.There is great potential to be realized through energy restructuring for low-carbon economy development.During 1990~2009,the carbon emissions of Gansu Province increased by 5.03% annually with the together work of population,income and carbon emissions intensity.According to "decoupling" theory,Gansu is still in the weak dematerialization stage.Scenario analysis showed that under the existing technology conditions,economic development is based on the cost of environmental degradation.Gansu should ensure the sustainable development of regional economic,focus on the introduction and development of renewable energy technologies,and promote these technologies to large-scale industry.