塔里木河干流绿洲250年人类活动、环境变化及可持续发展模式研究

塔里木河是中国最大的内陆河流,其绿洲可持续发展决定着新疆南疆地区的经济发展与环境稳定。文中根据历史文献和野外考察,分析18世纪中期-20世纪50年代的塔河人类活动与环境变化;利用遥感和GIS技术,获取塔里木河干流上、中、下游1973年、1990年、2000年和2008年土地利用/覆被数据;利用生态系统服务价值理论,分析1973-2008年土地利用/覆被变化的生态环境变化,并利用相关分析方法判断这种变化的驱动因子。结果显示:20世纪50年代以前,人工绿洲主要在源流进行,干流是天然绿洲环境,受制于河流特性的影响;以后人工绿洲开发主要在干流进行,以干流生态环境退化为代价,驱动其变化的是人口、经济利益、政策和资本等人文因素。在此基础上,利用自组织理论和利益相关者理论,建立了塔河干流绿洲可持续发展模式。

Human activity,environment change and sustainable development pattern of Tarim mainstream in recent 250 years

Tarim River is the largest inland river in China,its oasis sustanable development has important effection on economic development and environment stable of the whole south Xinjiang.Human activity and environment change from the middle of 18th to 1950s were analysed on the base of historical documents analysis and field study.Tarim mainstream land use/cover data of 1973,1990,2000 and 2008 were obtained through technology of remote sense and GIS;Model of ecosystem service value was used to analyze the ecological environment change caused by land use/cover change,and the drive forces of these changes from 1973 to 2008 were analyzed by correlation analysis method.Researches showed that before 1950’,artificial oases were enlarged in source stream of Tarim River,thereas Tarim mainstream was the natural oasis ecological environment,and was influenced by river characteristics.After that time,artificial oases have been exploited along the mainstream of Tarim River,which made its ecological environment degradated.All these changes were drived by humanic factors such as population,economic benefit,policy,and capital.An sustainable development pattern for Tarim mainstream was addressed according to theories of self-organization and stakeholder.