陕西省南秦岭典型土质滑坡形成机制及风险评价——以商洛市山阳中学滑坡为例

目的]对陕西省南秦岭典型土质滑坡形成机制及风险进行研究和评价,为该区地质灾害的防治提供支持。方法]以陕西省商洛市山阳县山阳中学滑坡为研究对象,通过现场调查、勘察及室内试验开展研究。结果]山阳中学滑坡现处于基本稳定状态,但不排除遭遇极端气候下复活的可能,滑坡复活概率为7.45%。结论]区域地壳差异性运动是山阳中学滑坡形成的内动力因素;降雨是该滑坡启动的主要外在诱因;滑坡威胁范围内人员在最大风险中丧命的年概率为:1.70×10-3。

Risk Assessment and Formation Mechanism for Typical Soil Landslide in South Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province-Taking Shanyang School Landslide as an Example

Objective] Studying on the formation mechanism and risk assessment of typical soil landslide in South Qinling Mountains can provide technical support for the prevention of geological disasters in the region.Methods] The Shanyang School landslide in Shaanxi was selected as an example,the formation conditions and distribution characteristics were analyzed through in situ investigation, survey and laboratory test.Results] The results show that Shanyang School landslide is in a stable state, the landslide may be revive suffered extreme climates, and resurrection probability is 7.45%.Conclusion] Regional differences in the crustal movement are the inner dynamic factor of the landslide, and rainfall is the main induced factor of landslide. The maximum personnel risk probability is 1.70×10^-3 in the threats range.