| 基于耕地压力指数的酒泉市粮食安全状况研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 万莉莉.基于耕地压力指数的酒泉市粮食安全状况研究[J].甘肃农业科技,2011(12):23-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 万莉莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省兰州市气象局,甘肃兰州i,730000 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据酒泉市1988—2007年的人口数量、耕地面积、粮食产量等资料,运用耕地压力指数作为测度粮食安全程度的指标,分析了酒泉市粮食安全状况的变化,并针对耕地压力指数的变化特点,建立了灰色GM（1,1）模型,预测了未来11 a该市的粮食安全状况。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食安全 耕地压力指数 动态分析 灰色预测 酒泉市 |
Study on Food Security Situation of Cultivated Land Pressure Index in Jiuquan City |
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| WAN Li-li.Study on Food Security Situation of Cultivated Land Pressure Index in Jiuquan City[J].Gansu Agricultural Science and Technology,2011(12):23-25. |
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| Authors: | WAN Li-li |
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| Institution: | WAN Li-li(Lanzhou City Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the population,arable land and food production in Jiuquan city from 1988 to 2007,the pressure index of cultivated land as a measure of food security indicators are used,food security situation changes of Jiuquan City were analyzed.It also the establishment of a gray GM（1,1）model to predict the food security situation in the future 11 years according to the changes characteristics in the pressure index for farmland of Jiuquan city. |
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| Keywords: | Food security Cultivated land pressure index Dynamic analysis Grey prediction Jiuquan city |
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