| 内蒙古肉羊产业发展预测及研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙淼,盖志毅.内蒙古肉羊产业发展预测及研究[J].畜牧与饲料科学,2011(12):58-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙淼 盖志毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古农业大学,内蒙古呼和浩特,010018 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业部肉羊技术体系内蒙古区域项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 综述了内蒙古肉羊产业发展现状及特点,并以计量模型的方式分析了肉羊存栏数与畜牧业产值的相关性。采用ARIMA模型,对2010—2014年肉羊存栏量进行趋势预测,得出肉羊存栏下降会对内蒙古畜牧业产值增长带来负面效应的结论。提出了解决畜牧业产值负增长的对应措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 肉羊产业 畜牧业产值 趋势预测 内蒙古 |
Forecast and Research on the Development of Meat Sheep Industry in Inner Mongolia |
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| SUN Miao,GAI Zhi-yi.Forecast and Research on the Development of Meat Sheep Industry in Inner Mongolia[J].Animal Husbandry and Feed Science,2011(12):58-61. |
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| Authors: | SUN Miao GAI Zhi-yi |
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| Institution: | (Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China) |
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| Abstract: | The development status and characteristics of meat sheep industry in Inner Mongolia were summarized.And the correlation between the number of meat sheep in stock and the output value of animal husbandry was analyzed by using econometric model. Using ARIMA model, the number of meat sheep in stock from 2010 to 2014 was forecast. And a conclusion was drawn that the decrease of the number of meat sheep in stock would have a negative effect on the output value＇s growth of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. Some countermeasures were proposed for solving the negative growth of the output value of animal husbandry. |
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| Keywords: | meat sheep industry output value of animal husbandry trend forecast Inner Mongolia |
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