四川省粮食生产可持续发展能力评价

在全面分析四川省粮食生产发展态势的基础上,设计了四川省粮食生产可持续发展能力的评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法对四川省1990~2006年的粮食生产可持续发展能力进行了评价。结果表明:四川省粮食生产可持续发展能力在稳步提高,但存在粮食产量变动频繁、耕地保有量持续减少等诸多隐患。然后,采用聚类分析法研究了2006年四川省21个市(州)的粮食生产可持续发展能力。结果显示:四川省内不同地区的粮食生产存在相似性和互补性。最后,针对如何提高四川粮食生产可持续发展能力提出了相关建议。

Evaluation on the Sustainable Development Ability of Grain Production in Sichuan Province

Evaluation index system was set up for evaluating the sustainable development ability of grain production based on the overall analysis of grain production trend in Sichuan Province.And the sustainable development ability of grain production during 1990-2006 in Sichuan Province was evaluated by adopting the method of principal component analysis.The results showed that the sustainable development ability of grain production improved steadily,but there were some hidden troubles such as frequently changes of grain yield and gradually decreasing of total farmland.The results of cluster analysis which analyzed the sustainable development ability of grain production of 21 cities in 2006 showed that grain production in different parts of Sichuan Province was similar and complementary.Finally,some proposals on how to improve the sustainable development ability of grain production were put forward.