中国东北粮食安全评价及政策模拟

系统评价东北地区粮食生产能力,阐释其作为粮食主产区对国家粮食安全的保障能力。通过对粮食供给、结构以及耕地压力的研究,得出结论东北地区保障国家粮食安全能力增强且增产潜力较大,但基于消费结构视角,粮食种植结构面临调整压力;近25年来最小人均耕地面积与耕地压力指数均下降1/2,现有单产水平下的耕地资源能够对国家粮食安全提供有效保障。此外,基于粮食生产能力评价角度选取相应情景,应用系统动力学模型模拟2010-2030年粮食产出状况,根据模拟结果,提出粮食总量安全与结构安全的相关建议。

The Assessment and Policy Simulation of Grain Security of Northeast China

This paper aims to assess grain production capacity of Northeast China and illustrate its capability to ensure national grain security being major grain production area. Through the researches of Northeast China on grain supply, grain structure and pressure to cultivated land, the paper concludes that: (1) the capability to safeguard national grain security has been enhanced and potential to increasing grain production is larger; (2) the planting structure face adjustment pressure from view of grain consumption structure; (3) the minimum area per capita of cultivated land and cropland pressure index has decreased 50 percent during the last 25 years; and (4) the cropland resource can effectively safeguard national grain security under the condition of grain yield per capita nowadays. Moreover, using system dynamics model, the paper simulates the grain production trend from 2010 to 2030 under different scenario, and provides some suggestions on the total and structural grain security according to the simulations' results