近年中国口粮进口对口粮安全的影响分析与建议

近两年,在全球粮食丰收、国际市场价格优势明显等因素作用下,中国口粮(稻谷和小麦)进口大幅增加。总体上,中国口粮产需平衡,进口量占口粮产量和消费量的比重都比较低,口粮进口对中国口粮安全影响不大。长期看,中国口粮消费刚性增长,口粮生产比较效益下降,全球可利用资源有限,中国口粮安全仍存隐忧。要通过提高口粮生产能力、创新经营体系、完善支持政策和保障机制等措施,切实保障中国口粮安全。

Impact of China＇s Grain Import on Grain Security in Recent Years

Under the condition of global grain harvest and cheaper price than domestic market, China＇s import of grain （mainly paddy, rice and wheat） increased sharply in the past two years. Generally speaking, production and demand of China＇s grain is balance, grain import only accounts for a little portion of domestic grain output and consumption, so grain import has little impact on grain security. In the long run, with grain consumption increasing rigidly, comparative benefit decreasing and limited available global resource, China＇s grain security is still facing great challenge. Effective methods should be taken to guaranty China＇s grain security, such as raising grain produce capacity, innovating management system, improving supporting policy and safeguard mechanism, etc.