刚性陶瓷瓦热防护系统概率设计分析方法

针对高超声速飞行器中广泛应用的陶瓷瓦热防护系统，结合有限元法和蒙特卡洛模拟建立了其概率热分析系统，提出了刚性陶瓷瓦热防护系统尺寸概率设计方法。建立了刚性陶瓷瓦热防护系统的二维有限元模型，考虑了热传导系数、比热容和表面辐射率等材料属性参数以及热防护系统各层厚度的不确定性，得到系统温度场的概率分布特性和系统热防护性能对各参数的灵敏度，并对系统的热可靠性进行了评估。算例表明：文中提出的方法对热防护系统设计过程中合理确定陶瓷瓦厚度和在保证系统性能的前提下有效减轻重量具有指导价值。

Investigation of probabilistic design method for ceramic tile thermal protection system

A probabilistic sizing tool for rigid ceramic tiles thermal protection system (TPS) for hypersonic flight vehicles was proposed based on finite element and Monte Carlo methods. A two-dimensional probabilistic finite element model was developed, in which the uncertainties of thermal conductivities, specific heat capacities, emissivity and the thickness of TPS were considered. The temperature distributions of TPS were obtained, and the sensitivities of the input random parameters were also investigated. Based on the statistical results, the thermal reliability of ceramic tile TPS was evaluated. The numerical example indicates that the thermal reliability can be improved by increasing the thickness of ceramic tile or strictly controlling its manufacture tolerance. The proposed method could be helpful to design highly reliable TPS with minimum weight.