中国和澳大利亚畜产品贸易波动因素分析

为研究1996—2012年间中国和澳大利亚畜产品贸易波动因素,在从贸易趋势、贸易互补性和贸易强度角度总结双边畜产品贸易特征的基础上,采用恒定市场份额模型对中国和澳大利亚畜产品贸易波动因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:中国和澳大利亚畜产品贸易增长快速,并且双边畜产品贸易互补性强;澳大利亚畜产品进口需求增长和中国畜产品竞争力提升是推动中国对澳大利亚畜产品出口增长的主要原因,对出口额增长贡献率分别为68.99%和48.56%;澳大利亚对中国畜产品出口增长的关键因素是中国畜产品进口规模增长,对出口额增长贡献率达到128.22%,而澳大利亚畜产品整体竞争力下降阻碍了出口增长;在中国加入WTO前后不同时期,影响中国和澳大利亚畜产品贸易增长的因素存在差异。

Factors of fluctuation on China-Australia livestock products trade

To investigate the factors of fluctuation on China-Australia livestock products trade from 1996 to 2012,empirical research was conducted by using constant market share model.It was based on the livestock products trade characteristics from the aspects of trade trends,trade complementarity and trade intensity.The results showed that:the China-Australia livestock products trade has grown rapidly,and the trade complementarities are strong;the increasing demand of livestock products in Australia and the enhancement of competitiveness on China''s livestock products promoted the growth of China''s livestock products exports to Australia,which contribute 68.99% and 48.56% to the export growth respectively;the key factor for the growth of Australia livestock products export to China is the enlarging of import scale in China which contributes 128.22% to the export growth,while the falling Australia competitiveness causes the decline in export;before and after China joined WTO,the factors influencing the growth of China-Australia livestock products trade have differences.