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非参数核密度法厘定玉米区域产量保险费率研究——以河北安国市为例
引用本文:王丽红,杨汭华,田志宏,闫仲勇. 非参数核密度法厘定玉米区域产量保险费率研究——以河北安国市为例[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2007, 12(1): 90-94
作者姓名:王丽红  杨汭华  田志宏  闫仲勇
作者单位:中国农业大学,经济管理学院,北京,100094
摘    要:本研究以非参数核密度法为核心,构建了农作物GRP保险费率厘定的方法体系,以此对河北省安国市1980—2004年的玉米产量风险损失进行估算和纯保险费率进行厘定,得出在80%的保障水平下,纯保险费率为3.4%;在70%的保障水平下,纯保险费率为2.9%。这一结果比较接近该区域传统的风险评估方法所得结果。该方法的运用旨在为区域农业保险费率的厘定提供了一种新的可供选择的方法途径。

关 键 词:玉米区域产量保险  非参数核密度模型  产量损失概率  费率厘定
文章编号:1007-4333(2007)01-0090-05
收稿时间:2006-05-18
修稿时间:2006-05-18

Maize GRP rate of premium deciding by nonprarametric kernel density:——A case study on Anguo city, Hebei province
Wang Lihong,Yang Ruihu,Tian Zhihong,Yan Zhongyong. Maize GRP rate of premium deciding by nonprarametric kernel density:——A case study on Anguo city, Hebei province[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2007, 12(1): 90-94
Authors:Wang Lihong  Yang Ruihu  Tian Zhihong  Yan Zhongyong
Abstract:We used non-prarametric kernel density technique as a core in developing an evaluation system for determining the GRP rate of premium based on our analysis of maize production in Anguo city, Hebei province during 1980- 2004. The study shows that at 80% guarantee level, the pure rate of premium was 3.4% ; and at 70% guarantee level, the pure rate of premium was 2.9%. These results were almost the same as those evaluated by the conventional method, which proves the feasibility of using non-prarametric kernel density technique for risk evaluation, and provides a new practical way to determine crop GRP rate of premium. The result can serve as a guide to China agricultural insurance tests, and agricultural insurance subsidy policy.
Keywords:maize GRP  nonparametric kernel density model  production loss probability  premium rate deciding
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