金昌市城市化与就业结构演变的计量分析

基于甘肃省金昌市1981—2015年的经济统计数据,通过OLS回归模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法定量、定性分析了金昌市的城市化水平与就业结构之间的关系,结果表明:(1)城市化进程与三次产业就业结构的演变具有阶段性:初步发展阶段、波动探索阶段、快速发展阶段;(2)金昌市的城市化水平与第三产业就业结构呈现正向的脉冲关系,而与第一、第二产业就业结构为负向脉冲关系;(3)金昌市的城市化水平处于快速发展阶段,就业结构以二、三产业为主。

Urbanization and Employment Structure Change in Jinchang: Quantitative Analysis

Using the OLS regression model, Granger causality test, impulse response function, this paper analyzed the relationship between urbanization level and employment structure in Jinchang, Gansu based on the economic statistical data from 1981 to 2015. The results show that: (1) the process of urbanization and employment structure of the three industries have three phases: the primary stage of development; the fluctuation development stage and the rapid development stage; (2) the urbanization level of Jinchang has positive pulse relationship with the urbanization development structure of the tertiary industry, however, it has negative pulse relationship with the employment structure of the primary and the secondary industries; (3) the urbanization development of Jinchang is in the rapid development stage, and the employment structure is dominated by the secondary and the tertiary industries.