大青山实验局森林资源的动态分析及其SD模型

本文运用系统动力学(System Dynamics,简称SD)方法,并结合统计方法,通过对广西大青山实验局森林资源的系统分析,建立了大青山实验局森林资源SD动态仿真模型。该模型由34个水平变量、300个方程式描述,包括杉木面积子块、杉木蓄积子块、马尾松面积子块、马尾松蓄积子块、阔杂面积子块、阔杂蓄积子块、其它地类面积子块、其它地类蓄积子块及抚育间伐子块等9个子块。并在此基础上,研究了抚育间伐对林分生长的影响。运用所建立的SD模型,可对该地区森林资源的动态行为作多种模拟实验研究,同时为分析经营方案对森林资源的影响提供了一种可行的手段。

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS AND ITS SD MODEL OF THE FOREST RESOURCES IN DAQINGSHAN EXPERIMENTAL BUREAU

Through the Systematic Analysis of the forest resources in Daqingshan Experimental Bureau, a SD simulation model of the forest resources in this region, which is described by 34 level variables and 300 equations consisted of 9 blockettes, is developed employing system Dynamics and statistical methods. Based on the analysis, the impacts of tending and thinning regime on the growth rate of stands is studied.By means of this SD model, the dynamic actions of forest resources in this region could be conducted with many kinds of simulation experiments, and a feasible technique for exploring the impacts of management program on forest resources. In this paper, 19 management experimental schemes are designed and simulated, and the results are analyzed and discussed.