辽西地区相对资源承载力与可持续发展研究

本文讨论并改进了相对资源承载力的概念、研究思路和计算方法,选择具有代表性的辽西地区,实证分析1988—2004年辽西地区相对土地资源承载力、相对经济资源承载力、相对生活水平承载力和综合承载力的演变和空间差异,预测2010年和2015年辽西地区的人口超载规模,分析辽西地区相对资源承载力存在问题的原因,提出辽西地区实现可持续发展的对策。

Study on Relative Resource Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Development in West Liaoning

The research discusses and modifies the concept of the relative resource carrying capacity with the research method and the calculation means.Relative resource carrying capacity is composed of relative natural resource carrying capacity,relative economic resource carrying capacity and relative social resource carrying capacity,whose representative indexes are areas under cultivation,GDP and total retail sales of consumer goods and whose average is the relative synthetic carrying capacity.Then the West Liaoning which has a less space scale than a province is taken as the representative with inner similarity of natural and economic conditions,and the characteristics of sustainable development of West Liaoning are recognized primarily by analyzing the evolutions and spatial characters of its relative land resource carrying capacity,its relative economic resource carrying capacity,its relative living standard carrying capacity and its relative synthetic carrying capacity from 1988 to 2004,and then its overloading population of 2010 and that of 2015 are predicted.The findings show that West Liaoning's relative land resource carrying capacity is far more important for synthetic carrying capacity than relative economic resource carrying capacity and relative living standard carrying capacity with the contribution rate of over 50 percent,which means weak sustainable development ability of West Liaoning.And the relative synthetic carrying capacity is coming down slowly with over-loading population going up slowly,and the over-loading population will be more than 3 million before 2010.Also West Liaoning is a region where the overloading population is the largest in Liaoning province with the range of 1.44 million to 2.80 million from 1990,and differences of the relative resource carrying capacity among the cities of West Liaoning and that between the cities of West Liaoning and the other cities of Liaoning are both remarkable.Furthermore,it is revealed that Chaoyang and Fuxin rely more and more on the natural resources.According to the above findings,the reasons of the problems of the relative resource carrying capacity of West Liaoning are analyzed,and the efficient countermeasures on population,land,industries,ecology and space are proposed to realize its sustainable development.