内蒙古草原区牧户草畜平衡决策的年型依据

降水是影响内蒙古草原牧区草原生产力和草地载畜率的关键自然因子,牧户作为畜牧业生产的直接决策主体,对降水年型的判断是其草畜平衡决策的重要前提。本研究以内蒙古草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠草原的典型县(旗)为研究区域,以20世纪80年代以来的气象数据、统计资料等为基础资料,分析了1980-2015年牧户自我降水年型判断行为及特征,及牧户依据该自我判断年型进行的草畜平衡决策。结果表明,草甸草原与荒漠草原中下年型出现次数最多,典型草原则以平年出现次数最多,但从整体上看,3个类型区丰水年型均比欠水年型出现频率略高;牧户的降水年型判断与实际降水年型结果差异明显,前者较为稳定而后者则变化较为频繁;1980-1995年,牲畜承包户的年型判断较为稳定和一致,草甸草原和荒漠草原自始至终分别是欠水年和中下年为依据,典型草原则以欠水年为主导;1996年以后牲畜、草地陆续承包到户后,牧户草畜平衡年型判断及依据开始出现3~5年的周期性变化,而在降水明显波动年份,牧户年型判断将出现变化和调整,以上研究说明牧户的降水年型判断有一套自己的认知,并非一成不变,而是根据自然、社会、经济等因素变化进行调整,最终形成牧户所认知的年型,并以此作为草畜平衡决策的重要自然依据。

Study on herders'perception of yearly precipitation patterns as a basis for their grass-animal balance decision in steppe regions of Inner Mongolia

Precipitation is a key natural factor that influences the rangeland productivity and carrying capacity in the steppe regions of Inner Mongolia.Herders are the direct decision-makers for livestock husbandry produc-tion,and their j udgments about yearly precipitation patterns provide an important basis for their forage-animal balance decisions.Through the use of meteorological and statistical data,and other reference materials since the 1980s,this study explored the herders'yearly precipitation patterns in the meadow steppe,typical steppe,and desert steppe regions of Inner Mongolia.The results showed higher frequencies in the meadow and desert steppe regions in below-normal precipitation years,compared with normal years in the typical steppe regions. Overall,there were more wet years in the three regions.Herders had their own judgments of precipitation pat-terns and those precipitation patterns remained steady and unchanged,whereas the actual precipitation patterns changed frequently over time.Between 1980 and 1995,the herders'perceptions of precipitation patterns were always that these were dry years and below-normal years in the meadow steppe and desert regions,respective-ly,whereas dry years were the dominant precipitation pattern in the typical steppe region.Since 1 9 9 6,the pre-cipitation patterns have usually followed a 3~5 year period.This implies that herders have their own under-standing and j udgments of the yearly precipitation patterns,which they adj ust according to natural,social,and economic changes.The yearly precipitation patterns provided an important natural basis for the herders'forage-animal balance decision making.